Looking Back at the 2016 NBA Draft: Biggest Steals and Surprising Busts

I still remember sitting in my living room during the 2016 NBA Draft, watching teams make decisions that would shape their futures for years to come. That draft class has proven particularly fascinating in retrospect - filled with unexpected developments that continue to surprise even seasoned basketball analysts like myself. While much attention focused on top picks like Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, the real story emerged in the later selections where franchises either struck gold or missed spectacularly.

Looking back, the biggest steals undoubtedly came from the second round. Malcolm Brogdon going 36th overall to Milwaukee stands out as perhaps the most egregious oversight by other teams. I've always appreciated two-way players who contribute beyond scoring, and Brogdon's Rookie of the Year campaign the following season validated my belief that he was severely underrated. Then there's Pascal Siakam at 27th - I'll admit even I didn't foresee his transformation into an NBA champion and All-Star when Toronto selected him. His development from raw athlete to skilled forward represents exactly the kind of player development success story that separates good franchises from great ones.

The disappointments, however, remain equally memorable. Kris Dunn at 5th overall never lived up to his defensive potential, while Dragan Bender at 4th became exactly the kind of international project risk that makes GMs lose sleep. What fascinates me about draft evaluation is how much depends on situation and development rather than pure talent. Marquese Chriss had all the physical tools you could want but never found the right system or coaching to harness them consistently.

This brings me to an interesting parallel I've observed in international basketball. Watching Calvin Oftana's recent performances in the Philippine Basketball Association's Commissioner's Cup, I'm reminded how player development can surprise us regardless of the league. Oftana, who wasn't particularly highly touted coming into the PBA, has emerged as one of the statistical leaders in the Best Player of the Conference race. His upcoming stint with Gilas Pilipinas comes on the heels of a remarkable professional breakthrough that reminds me of several second-round NBA success stories. The transformation from role player to central figure can happen anywhere - whether in the NBA or international leagues - when the right opportunity meets dedicated player development.

The 2016 draft also gave us Domantas Sabonis at 11th, who I believed was undervalued even then given his basketball IQ and pedigree. His subsequent development into a multiple-time All-Star demonstrates how teams often overthink themselves out of good decisions. Meanwhile, Jamal Murray at 7th has proven that sometimes the best picks aren't necessarily steals but rather perfect fits - his playoff performances for Denver have been nothing short of spectacular.

What continues to surprise me about evaluating this draft class is how many players developed in unexpected directions. Fred VanVleet going undrafted entirely remains perhaps the biggest oversight of all - a testament to how imperfect the draft process remains despite all our advanced analytics and scouting. Having watched countless prospects over the years, I've learned that work ethic and basketball intelligence often trump raw athletic measurements, though we frequently get seduced by physical tools during draft evaluation.

The 2016 class ultimately teaches us valuable lessons about patience in player development and the importance of organizational fit. Players like Caris LeVert (20th pick) and Dejounte Murray (29th) needed time and the right environment to flourish, while higher-selected talents like Henry Ellenson (18th) and Georgios Papagiannis (13th) remind us that draft position guarantees nothing. As I reflect on these players seven years later, I'm struck by how their careers have unfolded in ways that both confirm and contradict my original assessments - a humbling reminder that in basketball, as in life, development is rarely linear and often surprises us in the most compelling ways.